Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 13.877445 15.880859 18.040885 20.539050 23.344712 26.394367 29.956095
2025-03-02 11.030195 13.765303 16.943957 20.895279 25.658412 31.197040 38.106089
2025-03-09 9.423114 12.438369 16.115601 20.900778 26.930428 34.240367 43.733707
2025-03-16 8.103415 11.253770 15.266057 20.704744 27.831390 36.792477 48.844291
2025-03-23 7.240039 10.506385 14.824562 20.885349 29.094647 39.738426 54.476960
2025-03-30 6.705218 10.121499 14.790903 21.550190 30.976484 43.530215 61.359853
2025-04-06 5.988343 9.392295 14.197227 21.362184 31.636254 45.671529 66.088144
2025-04-13 5.129974 8.362027 13.073945 20.310749 30.977388 45.917827 68.165744
2025-04-20 4.799985 8.086558 13.011648 20.767565 32.467573 49.202464 74.613867
2025-04-27 4.493020 7.812572 12.919522 21.155286 33.854383 52.379759 81.029037
2025-05-04 4.104811 7.368625 12.524031 21.037668 34.454181 54.411303 85.835785
2025-05-11 3.723906 6.898595 12.045088 20.743848 34.745933 55.971486 89.979954
2025-05-18 3.444459 6.581506 11.797963 20.817023 35.636473 58.514910 95.790746
2025-05-25 3.221815 6.342621 11.660437 21.056106 36.799654 61.528881 102.462511
2025-06-01 2.988990 6.061070 11.423787 21.102833 37.635130 64.045089 108.437877
2025-06-08 2.737345 5.719781 11.054455 20.891215 38.018163 65.841757 113.329932
2025-06-15 2.571225 5.523390 10.923548 21.078032 39.069771 68.747563 120.104697
2025-06-22 2.487651 5.478984 11.062180 21.746730 40.975124 73.126095 129.448610
2025-06-29 2.294516 5.197745 10.740475 21.557738 41.365916 74.988816 134.693609
2025-07-06 2.010789 4.702975 9.976142 20.497432 40.142723 74.055281 135.190982
2025-07-13 1.932889 4.631979 10.022251 20.958088 41.678522 77.900702 143.940557
2025-07-20 1.852082 4.546924 10.033271 21.348988 43.100468 81.598482 152.567047
2025-07-27 1.723220 4.343698 9.791541 21.230407 43.563677 83.621693 158.347340